Israel Weighs Response to Saudi-Turkiye-Pakistan Defence Pact

Deteriorating Relations Across the Region

Tensions between Israel and Turkiye have escalated sharply. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated last month that Israel was a "burden that humanity can no longer bear," prompting Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar to label the remark "textbook incitement to genocide." In June, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that Turkish security extended beyond its borders into Aleppo, Damascus and Beirut, drawing a sharp rebuke from Netanyahu, who called Erdogan an "anti-Semitic dictator."

Pakistan's relationship with Israel has been similarly fraught. Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif described Israeli operations in Lebanon as "evil" in April and called the country a "curse for humanity." The Israeli prime minister's office characterised the subsequently deleted social media post as a "call for Israel's annihilation."

Saudi Arabia, while viewed as less of a direct concern by Israel, has kept its distance from the Abraham Accords normalisation process since the war on Gaza began in October 2023. The kingdom has been repeatedly targeted by Iran on the pretext that it hosts US forces, a vulnerability underscored by the February 28 US-Israeli assault on Iran.

Analyst Perspectives on the Pact's Purpose

Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King's College London, told Al Jazeera that the pact reflects Saudi Arabia's search for strategic alternatives. "American military power remains indispensable, but an American relationship does not guarantee immunity from attack and does not necessarily mean Washington will act according to Saudi priorities. Saudi Arabia, therefore, wants more strategic depth and more options," Krieg said.

Analyst Bregman described the agreement as primarily "holding hands together" to confront Iran rather than Israel, though he noted that "from an Israeli point of view, the main negative aspect in the pact is that Turkiye, which has emerged as a serious challenge to Israel, is part of it."

Former Israeli government adviser Daniel Levy told Al Jazeera that election dynamics will shape how the pact is debated. "My guess is they're either going to use this as a means to criticise Netanyahu and portray this, especially Saudi Arabia's inclusion, as a diplomatic failure," Levy said. "Netanyahu, for his part, might seek to downplay this, pointing to what he'll claim is the more important relationship with Narendra Modi's India as one he has personally nurtured."

Election Campaign Implications

Israel's official response remains pending as leadership deliberates over the weekend. With polls showing Netanyahu and Eizenkot neck and neck, the newly formed Turkiye-Saudi-Pakistan security nexus is poised to feature prominently in campaign messaging. Netanyahu has already been working to block the sale of US F-35 jets to Ankara, while Haaretz analysts have suggested he may be using Turkiye as "a useful new strategic rival" to bolster his security credentials ahead of the October vote.