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Tigray Forces Launch Offensive Against Ethiopian Government — AI-generated representative image: armed forces move through arid terrain in northern Ethiopia amid renewed clashes in the Afar region.

Editorial Team

Rebels seize Tigray airports and open a new front in Afar and Amhara, reigniting fears of full-scale war in northern Ethiopia

Tigrayan forces have seized control of federally managed airports in northern Ethiopia and launched an offensive against government positions in the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions, escalating a conflict that has raised fears of a return to full-scale war.

The offensive was confirmed on Wednesday by Getachew Reda, an adviser to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who said the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) had taken over airports in Tigray, leading to the suspension of flights to and from the region.

The escalation marks a sharp deterioration in a region still recovering from a devastating civil war that killed an estimated 600,000 people between 2020 and 2022. With the Pretoria Peace Agreement now effectively broken down and the TPLF having allied with six other armed groups to overthrow the federal government, analysts warn the crisis could widen into a regional conflict involving Eritrea and Sudan.

Major Escalation Across Northern Ethiopia

Getachew Reda, a former TPLF leader who now serves the federal government, said the group had "launched an all-out offensive against government positions in Afar and Amhara" and accused its leadership of taking "irresponsibility to new heights."

The Tigray regional government offered a conflicting account, saying it was countering an "invasion" by federal forces. In a statement, it accused federal troops of conducting "intensive bombardments" on Tuesday involving aircraft, drones and artillery, and said the Tigray army had been instructed to enter a "defensive battle" against a "genocidal invasion."

Clashes were reported in several parts of Afar, including Abala and Berahle, alongside shelling along the border with Amhara. Significant military build-ups by various parties were also reported in the border areas.

Background to the Conflict

The TPLF ruled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 before being sidelined after Abiy Ahmed took office, a shift that triggered the 2020-2022 civil war. The conflict killed about 600,000 people, according to African Union estimates, before the Pretoria Peace Agreement ended hostilities.

The region has not fully recovered. About one million people remain displaced, and parts of the peace agreement remain unfulfilled. An uneasy calm held until late 2025, when clashes resumed. The recent escalation follows the TPLF's announcement on Sunday that it had allied with six other armed groups across Ethiopia to overthrow Abiy's government.

Analyst Warnings on Regional Spillover

Alan Boswell, Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group, said the situation has turned very dangerous with the peace agreement effectively broken. "The TPLF has joined with other rebel groups to say that they are going to overthrow and topple the current regime, which is something very close to a declaration of war," he said.

Boswell noted an ongoing and escalating federal drone campaign against the TPLF, adding: "If we're not all the way back into something like a full war, we are very, very close." He also warned that Eritrea's alignment with the TPLF, combined with deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and the Sudanese army, could turn the crisis into "one big regional mess" absent de-escalation.

What Lies Ahead

Flights to and from Tigray remain suspended following the airport seizures, and clashes continue across Afar and along the Amhara border. The federal government and the Tigray regional government have offered conflicting accounts of who initiated the fighting, and no confirmation of a ceasefire or diplomatic initiative has been announced. Further developments are awaited as the risk of wider regional escalation persists.